Rapid decline in equipment costs and government support for the U.S. solar market has been explosive growth in the foundation. 2020, U.S. solar photovoltaic and solar thermal market will achieve an annual increase of 42% to 44GW. By then, the domestic solar power generation capacity, including photovoltaic and thermal power generation capacity will account for the total installed capacity of the national electricity 4.3%.
Solar light and heat simultaneously
America’s current installed capacity of solar power only 1.4GW, the fifth living in the world, according to BNEF forecasts, by 2020 this figure could rise to 44GW. In a new report in its 2020 large-scale solar thermal power plan is expected to increase from the current 0.4GW 14GW; and photovoltaic power generation will remain the growth rate of 34% in 2020 to 30GW.
BNEF studies have shown that the cost of a typical PV module has fallen over the past two years, more than half, however, solar power is still more expensive than others. According to its analysis, leading photovoltaic and solar thermal power generation in the absence of subsidy, its cost of power generation close to $ 200 / MW, coal-fired power plant is almost equal to 4 times that of onshore wind 2 to 4 times .
BNEF expected, given the existing incentives in 2020 in Hawaii, Texas, New Jersey and Massachusetts and other places, the field of large-scale commercial PV systems can get 8-14% of the non-leveraged return. If using more sophisticated financial leverage, in the scale of future projects and technical cost reduction together, large-scale photovoltaic power generation business areas more attractive to investors.
If you maintain the current incentive mechanism, 2020, there will be more than 3% of the commercial rooftop solar photovoltaic systems. Public facilities and residential systems will in the future solar power generation system each quarter. BNEF expected by 2020, 2.4% of U.S. residential solar power systems will be installed.
Is the basis for policy-driven
BNEF that at least the next three years, tax credits, capital expenditure grants, production incentives and renewable energy credits and other policy measures will expand the U.S. solar market has always been the main driving force. Currently solar energy costs are falling, by the federal and state governments to implement policies is expected to bring business, public utilities and residential solar power to grow rapidly.
Provide returns to investors in their analysis, BNEF said the decision to return the amount of sunlight is not the key indicators, compared to high electricity prices and generous government support to be much more important. BNEF research director Milo Sjardin said the United States, around 2015, the U.S. retail market in solar energy subsidies in the case of non-driven by competition, which will make the U.S. into the world’s most dynamic solar markets.
BNEF’s CEO Michael Liebreich said: “The U.S. solar market will have a very significant growth. Now the most important thing is to ensure policy stability so that investors remain confident in this critical period. The next decade, the U.S. solar energy industry from the private sector needs 100 billion U.S. dollars investment, and any government’s commitment to clean energy could destabilize the hint, will lead to the withdrawal of investors. “
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